太行山区耕地整理适宜性评价及障碍因子诊断——以河北省涞源县为例

[目的]耕地整理适宜性评价是土地整治规划的基础,可以为划定耕地整理重点区域、确定耕地整理项目和整理时序提供依据。[方法]文章以位于太行山区的涞源县为研究区域,以现状耕地图斑为评价单元,经独立性分析后选取地形坡度、表层土壤质地、灌溉保证率、耕地系数、与道路距离、与城镇中心距离、地质灾害易发性7个评价指标,运用贝叶斯概率模型计算各指标权重及未整理耕地的整理后验概率,并得到研究区未整理耕地的适宜性空间分布。同时根据改进的障碍因子诊断模型,分析了各适宜整理区的障碍因子并提出相应的整理措施。[结果](1)在影响涞源县耕地整理的各因素中,影响程度从小到大依次是表层土壤质地、与城镇中心距离、耕地系数、地形坡度、与道路距离、地质灾害易发性和灌溉保证率;(2)在涞源县未整理耕地中,高适宜整理区与较适宜整理区占未整理耕地的20.79%,可作为涞源县下一步耕地整理的选择;(3)制约涞源县全域耕地质量的障碍因子是灌溉保证率,整理过程中应根据实际情况科学寻找灌溉水源、结合地形条件采用蓄、引、提相结合的方式合理布设农田水利设施,提高水资源利用率。[结论]该文可为太行山区更科学合理地开展耕地整理项目提供依据。     

FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa: A longitudinal perspective on location-specific factors (2003–2010)

This paper examines the characteristics of Location Specific Factors (LSFs) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regarding inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by Multinational Enterprises (MNEs). Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) of 758 MNEs in 2003, 1216 in 2005 and 2402 in 2010 is used to compare the variability in LSFs in ten, 15 and 19 SSA countries respectively. We find firstly the most powerful factors, influencing the political-economy and trade dynamics of hosts to FDI, stable over time. Secondly, by 2010, production inputs become the most important factor for FDI followed by political-economic stability. This result reflects findings in International Business (IB) literature. Policy implications point to unwavering need by SSA to reduce transaction costs for FDI; increase the predictability of the policy environment; and increase the productivity-adjusted cost efficiency of inputs.     

基于投入视角的河南省农业碳排放时空演化特征与影响因素分解

[目的]对河南省农业碳排放进行测算,并分析其时空演化特征与影响因素,可为实现低碳农业发展提供依据。[方法]基于农业生产中翻耕、灌溉、化肥、农药、农膜和农用柴油等6个方面碳源,采用碳转化系数法、标准差、变异系数与探索性空间分析方法 (ESDA)对河南省1993~2015年的农业碳排放及其时空演变进行了分析。运用LMDI模型对河南省农业碳排放影响因素进行分解。[结果]河南省农业碳排放量和排放强度总体上均呈上升趋势,年均增速分别为4.32%和3.72%。河南省农业碳排放量空间分布呈较为明显的集聚特征,主要年份高碳排放区集中于豫东南地区;碳排放强度多为Ⅱ级和Ⅲ级水平,空间分布更为均衡。23年来,河南省各地农业碳排放量和排放强度的相对差异与绝对差异整体上均呈扩大趋势,农业碳排放量的集聚趋势更为明显,高碳排放区域有向豫东南和豫北地区进一步集聚的趋势,农业碳排放强度趋向于均衡化发展。生产效率、劳动力和结构因素对碳排放有抑制作用,而农业经济发展因素对碳排放具有促进作用。[结论]未来河南省还须进一步采取措施,有效实现农业碳减排。     

甘肃省乡村旅游示范村空间分布及影响因素研究

[目的]通过考察并分析甘肃省乡村旅游示范村的空间分布特征以及影响因素,试图揭示其空间分布规律,为今后甘肃省乡村旅游示范村发展与布局提供科学依据,为西北地区其他省份乡村旅游发展提供参考借鉴。[方法]以甘肃省在建的206个乡村旅游示范村为研究对象,综合运用最邻近指数、地理集中指数、基尼系数、核密度分析、空间自相关等方法,研究甘肃省乡村旅游示范村空间分布规律,并剖析其影响因素。[结果]最邻近指数R=0.71,表现为凝聚型分布,地理集中指数Z=26.73,均匀度C=0.016,表现为非均衡集中分布;空间自相关分析未通过显著性检验;根据核密度分析的集聚程度,将示范村空间分布划分为三大片区,共形成5个中心区, 1个次中心区。[结论]甘肃省乡村旅游示范村整体呈凝聚型分布,区域分布呈现出非均衡集中型状态,空间自相关性不显著;乡村旅游示范村密度在空间上分布差异较大,呈现出多中心发展格局。乡村旅游示范村的分布格局受地形地貌与水文等自然因素以及政策、人口与经济、客源市场与交通、文化等人文因素共同影响。     

基于结构方程模型的集聚农户共生认知及影响因素分析:以重庆市为例

研究目的:探讨对集聚农户共生、集聚区土地利用率提高的影响因素,为提升农户共生的认知水平、优化农户共生关系及促进资源的节约集约利用提供有效路径及理论指导。研究方法:参与式农户调查,结构方程模型。研究结果:(1)户主自身特征、农户家庭特征、集聚共生效益特征及外部环境与政策特征这4类外源潜变量对农户共生认知产生重要影响且影响程度大小不同,其中,集聚共生效益特征的影响最为显著,外部环境与政策特征、户主自身特征和农户家庭特征的影响依次减弱;(2)是否为干部、对原集聚模式的满意度、是否促进农户生产生活条件和政府对集聚区的补贴力度分别对这4类外源潜变量具有较好的解释能力。研究结论:显化农户共生效益、增强"精英"农户及村干部的正向引导、提升农户成员受教育水平、培养农户"共生共荣"理念等是深化农户共生关系,促进和谐乡村人居环境建设的重要路径。     

Analysis of Domestic Factors Affecting Outward Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil

Developing markets have increasingly gained prominence in the world economy, but the domestic factors behind this success are not well established. This uncertainty may interfere with multinational expansion plans. In this article, we examine several macroeconomic and institutional factors affecting Brazilian outward foreign direct investment in 17 destination countries. We applied a pooled ordinary least squares regression over the 2001–2014 period. The findings suggest that macroeconomic factors are still statistically significant to explain investment abroad, but several institutional factors such as corruption have emerged, having a negative effect and political violence having a positive effect on Brazilian outward foreign direct investment.     

出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同

根据微观经济学的需求理论，结合相关研究进展，文章构建了包括基本经济因素（收入和相对价格）、对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征、突发事件等变量在内的出境旅游需求模型，以74个国家/地区1995—2013年的数据为样本，分析了发达经济体和发展中经济体出境旅游需求影响因素的总体特征与异同。结果表明，收入和价格是影响出境旅游需求的决定性因素，对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征及突发事件等其他因素对出境旅游需求同样具有一定的影响。其中，收入、价格以及产业发展水平对发展中经济体出境旅游需求的影响作用相对更大，而对外开放度和人口统计特征（就业水平、年龄结构和受教育水平）对发达经济体出境旅游需求的影响更加显著。     

快速城镇化地区不同生计类型农户耕地利用集约度评价 ——以上海市青浦区为例

研究目的:针对快速城镇化地区农户生计分化现象,以上海市青浦区为例,对不同生计策略类型农户的耕地利用集约度进行评价,并分析其影响因素,以期为改善农户土地利用行为、实现土地资源合理高效利用与农户生计可持续发展提供政策参考。研究方法:运用价值形态测度方法核算各生计类型农户的耕地利用集约度,以两水平方差成分模型确定耕地利用集约度影响因素。研究结果:(1)不同生计策略类型农户耕地利用集约度存在差异性,大小顺序依次为专业农业型、传统农业型、农业兼业型、非农兼业型,劳动集约度与资本集约度排序与之基本一致;(2)同一生计策略类型农户的耕地利用集约度存在相似性,耕地利用集约度的总变异中有24.32%是由农户生计策略类型不同而引起的,水平一中农业收入比重、农业补贴、耕地面积、地块平均离家距离、农户离集镇距离与水平二中是否兼业等是影响农户耕地利用集约度的显著因素;(3)模型拟合效果评价表明该方法具有可行性。研究结论:耕地利用集约度不仅与农户自身禀赋有关,而且受生计类型影响,政府相关部门应结合当地实际情况引导农户对这两方面进行调整或完善。     

A new way of thinking about IT project management practices: Early empirical results

Despite decades of efforts to improve the management of Information Technology (IT) projects, failure rates remain high. This article first reviews literature about information systems success and IT project success. Most of the improvement efforts have focused on advancing variations of the traditional project management paradigm, such as embodied by the Project Management Body of Knowledge. This article describes a new way of thinking about managing IT project called Value-Driven Change Leadership (VDCL), and reports the results of an initial empirical exploration to identify project success factors stemming from VDCL as well as the traditional paradigm. The results are based on data collected from 16 medium-sized IT-intensive projects at eight Chicago-based organizations from six different industries. The results, although not based on a large sample, point to several project management practices associated with project success that stem from both the traditional paradigm as well as VDCL. For example, traditional practices managing stakeholders’ expectations, scope, and schedule are associated with project success, as are practices stemming from VDCL, such as managing the end-product’s architecture, business value added, and the organization change associated with systems implementation. The results of this study also suggest that further research into new ways of thinking about IT project management may be fruitful.     

Understanding the formation of e-loyalty based on a dedication-constraint perspective

Despite the importance of retaining customers in the context of e-shopping, the formation of an e-buyer’s loyalty remains inconclusive. Drawing on e-shopping literature, this study developed and tested a model to explain e-buyer loyalty from the perspective of business-to-consumer relationship management. We build on a dedication-constraint dual model to delineate the relationship between perceived benefits, switching cost, service-specific investment, and loyalty. Empirical results from 505 respondents show that loyalty is influenced by both perceived benefits and switching costs. In addition, switching costs partially mediate the relationship between service-specific investments and loyalty. Implications of these results are discussed.